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Showdog.com Forum · Alaskan Malamute

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 CS Astronomical
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2/16/2015 5:57:51 AM reply with quote send message to CS Astronomical Object to Post

Drake, can I ask about your formula if you don't mind sharing? I think I remember that if the SS is not 20, you add half of the difference from 20 to see what it would be?
 Drake Creek Meadows
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2/16/2015 6:59:30 AM reply with quote send message to Drake Creek Meadows Object to Post

Well my formula has nothing to do with showshine, but the equation for figuring that out is really simple:

20 - your dogs SS = number/2 = number + your dogs SOP = equals adjusted SOP

The formula I keep mentioning predicts a dogs show potential. It works by generating and average for the breed and then comparing a dog to that average. The higher the number off the average the better the dog. I've been developing it for years and have gotten it to the point where it's very accurate. Took a lot of experimentation and trail and error to get the weights for the line ins correct, but I think it's nearly perfect now. However, it is proprietary and not something I'm ready to share. I'm going to at some point, just need to make sure that math is completly sound first. I will run any dogs you'd like through it though, if you want.

I find that SOP often makes people overlook greatness. As I find that the most promising dogs aren't always those with the highest SOP.

Hope that helps. happy :)
 CountryStrong Kennels
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2/16/2015 9:01:50 AM reply with quote send message to CountryStrong Kennels Object to Post

this post has been edited 2 time(s)

quote
posted by Drake Creek Meadows
Audrey, according to my formula the dog named CountryStrong Wicked Dreams is actually the best pup in that litter, and no less showable. I would suggest not selling her, but if you don't want her; I'm interested in her. happy :)

Not a bad turn out for your first litters, a bonus is that it's great to have those Tavin dogs behind your girls to tighten those decimals for the next generation. happy :)

If you want her, you can have her. happy :) Thanks for the formula so I can have a better predictor of what to look at in my dogs as far as adjusted SOP goes. I'm curious about your other formula as well, do you think you could pm me so you could explain it further?

I think I'm going to wait for my litter this Wednesday to pick a bitch to keep, and if all goes well there will be some higher numbers in the near future. happy :)

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Last edited by CountryStrong Kennels on 2/16/2015 9:11:52 AM
 CS Astronomical
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2/16/2015 7:01:38 PM reply with quote send message to CS Astronomical Object to Post

No worries Drake-figuring out the layers of this game is part of the challenge! If it was just simply SOP, it might get boring... Thanks for confirming the SOP/SS calculation-I know there's a lot more to a dog's quality than that but it is a quick reference.
 Kianya Kennels
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2/17/2015 2:24:14 PM reply with quote send message to Kianya Kennels Object to Post

This boy is looking for a potential show home... he has a fantastic head. $25 offer accepted if you are going to show him happy :)

www.showdog.com/dog.aspx?id=13803171
 Drake Creek Meadows
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2/18/2015 5:32:16 AM reply with quote send message to Drake Creek Meadows Object to Post

Oh man Kianya that boy is so tempting, man I would have taking in an instant if he was a she. razz :p happy :) As a rule I try to avoid buying dogs since I have to avoid having too many dogs. I have to resist the temptation unfortunately; I just can’t, and that’s a shame. -.-‘ He’s a solid dog though, so I’m sure you won’t have any problems finding someone to snap him up.

Oh and Audrey, I’d like to take her but $150 for her is a bit too rich for my blood, maybe if I was going to show her, but if I did buy her it would just be for breeding. If you will come down to $100 on the price I’d gladly take her off of your hands. happy :)

Also, instead of PMing you I’ll just explain here so everyone can read, but keep in mind that I’m not sharing the math for my formula, however I’ll run dogs through it for people, if anyone wants.

Anyway, my formula works by generating an average per trait for the breed; I get this average at the end of each month by punching all the current top dogs into it. It doesn’t seem like a significant sample size, and therefore you’d think drawing an average from there would be prone to inaccuracies, but it’s actually the best group that’s indicative of what’s out there in the breed winning right now; therefore it’s an ideal sample group to see where the trends lie in the breed as a whole. Might as well post it here since people are curious; here are the average trait numbers for this month:

Head: 9.6
FQ: 9.3
HQ: 9.0
Gait: 10.4
Tnb: 8.9
Coat: 9.5
Size: 9.7
Temp: 9.4
Feet: 9.5

In my formula the breakdown of those traits amounts to 10.2. Though, that number and how I got it aren’t important to the casual observer, what’s important is that this number is a better indicator than SOP of where the breed, and individual dogs rate.

Once that average is generated any dog can then be punched in and weighed against it this will give the dog its rate and grade.

I grade potential by category: Below Average (under 10.2), Average (10.2), Good (10.3-10.4 *+.1-.2*), Great (10.5 *+.3*), Excellent (10.6-10.7 *+.4-.5*), Exceptional* (10.8 *+.6*), and Exceptional** AA class (10.9 *+.7*), Exceptional*** AAA class (11-11.2 *+.8-1*), Supreme (11.3+ *+.1.1 on) *only one dog ever has been this grade on my formula* those numbers shift forward with the breed average, but the ratios never change.

Here are how some of the dogs in my kennel rate:

Secret to Success: 10.6 Excellent
Used to be exceptional but is falling back as the average increases
Elysium: 10.5 Great
Oracle Sea: 10.8 Exceptional*
Greater Heights: 10.9 Exceptional **
Aurora Polaris: 10.7 Excellent
Red Essence: 10.3 Good

Just for example.

Hidden factors can set a dog down or up by a grade, but they pretty much will perform up to their grade in my experience. It will come down to experience, hidden factors and judge preferences when it comes to who will win between dogs of the same or one off grade.

The breed’s average SOP is 95.4% based on those traits by the way.

Anyway, hope that helps sate your curiosity Audrey. happy :)
 CountryStrong Kennels
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2/18/2015 11:08:47 AM reply with quote send message to CountryStrong Kennels Object to Post

Drake, that definitely did sate my curiosity, now I just have to crack your secret formula. wink :)

Also, I lowered Wicked Dreams's price to $100 for ya. happy :)
 CountryStrong Kennels
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2/18/2015 2:11:20 PM reply with quote send message to CountryStrong Kennels Object to Post

Just had another litter.. Pretty excited with those numbers. Drake, would you mind running the numbers for this litter?
 Drake Creek Meadows
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2/18/2015 3:48:25 PM reply with quote send message to Drake Creek Meadows Object to Post

Go for it, I always encourage people to look at things from every angle. happy :) If you can figure it out, I'll be impressed. happy :)

Anyway, I ran all of your newest pups and the ate like so:

Crown Royal: 10.2, Average
Seven Crown: 10.0, Below Average
Jack Daniels: 10.7, Excellent
Jim Beam: 10.3, Good
Southern Comfort: 10.5, Great

Jack Daniels is the best one in the litter happy :)
 CS Astronomical
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2/18/2015 4:52:11 PM reply with quote send message to CS Astronomical Object to Post

Drake that makes an incredible amount of sense even without seeing the math. Thank you so much for letting us see a glimpse, and for the offer to run our dogs through the system. For curiosity, can you run the following two dogs through?

www.showdog.com/dog.aspx?id=13795073

www.showdog.com/dog.aspx?id=13795072

Much appreciated!

And congrats on the speciality wins!

And nice litter CountryStrong!
 Rosa Nera
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2/18/2015 5:11:15 PM reply with quote send message to Rosa Nera Object to Post

this post has been edited 1 time(s)

Kianya I offered on your boy but never heard back. I know this account is newish but I am a returning player with a family account, 2 of my other accounts have 10 year badges. Almost Heaven (bearded collies) and K D and E Kennels (Aussies). I just started in Malamutes. I would love to show your boy and add him to my breeding program. I offered $25 like you said, but then I offered $50 just incase. happy :)


Drake, thank you for sharing the current stats for Mals. Any chance you could run this boy for me? www.showdog.com/dog.aspx?id=13771956

I have a few 95.60 and up that I would love to know the numbers on as well, but this is my only 96+ and wanted to see how he looked thru your program. So if it is not too much trouble could you do him? Thanks.

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Last edited by Rosa Nera on 2/18/2015 5:42:44 PM
 Drake Creek Meadows
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2/18/2015 6:23:03 PM reply with quote send message to Drake Creek Meadows Object to Post

Thanks CS, I'm glad to help. happy :)

Also, yes congrats to HWK for taking BISS. ^^ Congrats to you as well CS for taking 2nd. happy :) Thanks to all for entering my specialty. I will be adding more in a day or two, so I hope you guys will continue to support them. happy :)

Here are the results for your dogs:

CS:


Shadow Town: 10.15, Average
Silence: 10.5, Great

Rosa Nera:

This Is Just A Dream: 10.9, Exceptional **

He will be as awesome out there as you probably expected. ^^

I'd be happy to run your other dogs as well Rosa, it only takes a moment, so no trouble at all. Just post the links here of the dogs you'd like to know more about. That goes for everyone; there's no such thing as too many. happy :)

I have a couple of other formulas also, but doing a full analysis on a dog is time consuming even with Excel, so I'll just keep those completely to myself for now.
 Rosa Nera
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2/18/2015 6:53:22 PM reply with quote send message to Rosa Nera Object to Post

Thanks Drake. Actually I wasn't sure (other than knowing it was pretty high for the current SOP)
because I am new to Malamutes on SD. I can look at a Bearded Collies chart and "see" the dog in my mind. I am not able to do that yet with Mals happy :)


since you offered:

www.showdog.com/dog.aspx?id=13693974 I am curious about Joy because despite her nice SOP she has only taken one 4pt major in her show career so far and no other pts.

www.showdog.com/dog.aspx?id=13771954

www.showdog.com/dog.aspx?id=13794219

www.showdog.com/dog.aspx?id=13806350
www.showdog.com/dog.aspx?id=13771959 trying to decide on these two girls to use for brood or show.

Thank you for doing this.

 Drake Creek Meadows
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2/18/2015 7:32:39 PM reply with quote send message to Drake Creek Meadows Object to Post

Well, he will be difficult to beat once he hits the ring for sure. The best part is, even if he is dropped a grade once he starts showing by bad hidden factors, he'll still be exceptional, so win-win. ^^ Only other exceptional dogs will be able to beat him in most cases. Though in his case it really is his extra high SOP that also makes him extra great. happy :)

Also, go all those dogs rated:

Joyous Morning: 10.25, Average
What Dreams May Come: 10.55, Excellent
Everybody Dance Now: 10.4, Good
Unnamed Puppy: 10.45, Great
Dreaming in Color: 10.5, Great

SOP can have a way of making some dogs look better than they are sometimes, but Joyous should still be finishable, anything at or above average should be finishable. She will build up more experience the more she is entered. That experience will allow her to win over better grade pups that are just starting out.

Also, I'm always glad to help, so no problem. happy :)

If you ever need anything, have questions ect. just let me know, always glad to help. happy :)
 CountryStrong Kennels
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2/18/2015 9:12:12 PM reply with quote send message to CountryStrong Kennels Object to Post

Drake, I've been racking my brain all day trying to figure out the formula.



I've given up for now, but I will be utilizing your skills in the future and also using adjusted SOP. wink :)
 Howling Wolves Kennels
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2/18/2015 9:55:53 PM reply with quote send message to Howling Wolves Kennels Object to Post

Drake- how did you get 10.2 out of those numbers for the traits?
 CountryStrong Kennels
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2/18/2015 10:01:12 PM reply with quote send message to CountryStrong Kennels Object to Post

quote
posted by Howling Wolves Kennels
Drake- how did you get 10.2 out of those numbers for the traits?
That was exactly my issue when trying to figure it out.
 CountryStrong Kennels
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2/18/2015 10:02:51 PM reply with quote send message to CountryStrong Kennels Object to Post

For those looking for new blood btw, I have 14 puppies for sale. Might be willing to take lower offers if you buy in multiples.
 Kianya Kennels
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2/19/2015 12:53:58 PM reply with quote send message to Kianya Kennels Object to Post

Hey all... sorry for posting and disappearing...lol. I have a 5 month old baby and had to have a small day surgery yesterday, so sometimes my replies are slower than I'd like them to be.

I got alot of offers on that boy so I just chose the first one, so congratulations and best of luck to his new owner Rosa Nera!

I'd also like to introduce my new puppy... www.showdog.com/dog.aspx?id=13803172
 Kianya Kennels
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2/19/2015 12:57:50 PM reply with quote send message to Kianya Kennels Object to Post

this post has been edited 1 time(s)

Nice brood bitch available too, her daughter is the one who produced the 9.8 heads for me.

$25 offers accepted too!

www.showdog.com/dog.aspx?id=13596481

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Last edited by Kianya Kennels on 2/19/2015 12:57:59 PM

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